Spring is here and along with it some positive news. The financial markets have made a strong come back and we're beginning to hear of the "green shoots" associated with improving credit markets, reduced anxiety over Obama's economic team and the early signs of a bottom in the real estate market. As Warren Buffett recently stated, "real estate got us into this mess and I'd watch something like housing starts for the signs of recovery".
Regardless of your metric, the worst seems to be behind us and we're sensing a change in sentiment. As an executive recruiter and adviser to leaders, my business tends to track with consumer confidence which has improved somewhat over the last 60 days. Not surprisingly, clients have increased their activity level and are beginning to show the signs of "getting on with it" and making decisions. Along with the lack of major negative surprises comes spring and all the discussion in the media of "green shoots". The optimism is encouraging and it feeds on itself. While I expect to see unemployment rise well into 2010, the senior executive talent market should noticeably improve during the second half of 2009.
During the early summer, look for some correction in the equity markets and with it the return of cautious optimism and discussion of a prolonged recession. We should then expect to see increased M&A activity as private equity investors and strategic buyers feel the time is right to buy. This, in turn, should be followed by a mid to late summer rally in the markets and a noticeable increase in CEO turnover by those of us who keep an eye on the talent market. At that point, the stage will be set and executive recruiters along with senior level job seekers should breathe a sigh of relief.
In the meantime, what should senior level executives do while waiting for the market to turnaround? My suggestion would be to remain patient and forget about the perceived stigma associated with being unemployed. Use your time wisely, but don't be in a rush to get repositioned in a market with few opportunities. Enjoy the summer and be ready for a much improved market in the fall.
