As we anticipate another primetime Obama press conference tonight, we are also approaching a defining moment in his presidency but also in our recovery as a country. What Obama chooses to do on healthcare, and perhaps even more importantly, how and when he charges forward will make a huge impact on our politics and psyche.
On the economic front, the news is relatively good. Although unemployment continues to rise and is expected to continue to do so for the next few quarters, the second quarter results for many companies have surprised on the upside and the stock market is enjoying a nice summer rally. The recovery is clearly in process and the unprecedented moves to stabilize our financial system are clearly working. While the stimulus plan and its impact are in question, the verdict on the massive government spending will likely be positive as a meaningful economic recovery will be shown to have been more difficult without the stimulus. Take one look at how the stimulus in China has worked and it is clear the same argument will be made for how it made sense here in the US.
But these positive trends do not mean that these future outcomes are guaranteed. We've got a long way to go and the steps taken now by Obama and our government on healthcare could dampen or slow the recovery, or possibly accelerate it. While Obama is clearly passionate about the need to offer a government healthcare option and to cover the uninsured, he also seems compelled to use every ounce of political capital to make it happen quickly and early in his first year as President. This "damn the torpedoes" approach belies the judgement and temperment that he has displayed in the election as well as his first six months, and if he recalls this was part of the problem with Bush.
Tonight we will see what is likely to come. Obama will either highlight that Congress is the problem and the American people elected him to move quickly and aggressively on healthcare, or he will display the shrewdness of a President and a leader who has the potential to be great. If he takes the argumentative fast track, the downside is great with limited upside to be seen and felt during his time as President. If, however, he displays the judgement to slow down to avoid slowing the recovery and throwing more fuel on the partisan political fire, he may just live for another day.
The American people know that getting healthcare reform right is much more important that getting it done fast. This is a defining moment for Obama and my bet is that he's smart enough to put the blame on Congress for moving too slow and take credit for being the wise leader who is committed to getting it done right. If he takes this tack, the markets will love it and this summer rally may just have some legs.
What do you think? Does Obama only have one speed, "spend it fast and do it now"?
